Is October “wet season” full or “dry season” empty?
No, I’m not talking about real ghosts.
I’m talking about the most feared menace of them all:
Specifically, I’m talking the October rainfall average.
October is what we commonly label as a transition month: part wet season that was and part dry season to come.
But that 4 inches – the so-called average – is a number that haunts.
If you look at the historic data – going all the way back to 1932 – you’re more likely to see the October rain glass “wet season” full or “dry season” empty …
But it’s few and far between that you see the rains fill the October cup half way up to the middle.
Is this October’s rain cup “wet season” full or “dry season” empty?
It’s still too early to tell.
That’s because in the moment, at the event horizon, as the days unfold before our eyes, October is what we call in the political world as “fence sitter.”
Yes, the rainy season has officially mothballed its operation for the winter due to the inexorable loss of daytime heating hours and now the dip in humidity: the dual mix of fuel so critical for igniting south Florida’s sea-breeze fed afternoon storms. .
But the tropics are still in play, and like the World Series games this week and next between the Philadelphia Phillies and our very own Tampa Bay Rays (Go Rays!), it’s the specter of those storms, whether real or imagined, that keep us on the edge of our seats for a full 9 innings, (and if the earlier predictions from William Gray bear out, we could be in for extra innings this year).
Like all great baseball seasons eventually come to an end …
Once the 31st approaches, and passes: we can finally and with impunity, answer the question that has puzzled hydrologists and philosophers alike through the ages:
“Was the October rain a glass half empty or half full?
… or did it fall somewhere near the middle?”
If it the latter is the case, then we just saw a ghost.