Florida cold front
Fine art of forecasting good weather

We’re still waiting for our first official cold front …

But no reason to get worried quite yet.

This histogram shows the frequency that the first official cold front (i.e. two consecutive nightly lows below 60° F) arrives to Naples Florida, as based on the historical record from 1941 to present.

By “official” cold front, I’m going by Morton D. Winsberg’s definition in his seminal book Florida Weather. It’s a book that I’ve read over and over again. I call it a rereadable. Keep in mind Winsberg’s definition doesn’t count just drier air, an end to the summer rains or slightly cooler morning and evening temperatures. For the cold front to be “official” it needs to be a true blue slug of continental air that sends nighttime lows plunging under 60° F for two days in a row. Or in other words, it will inspire you to wear long sleeves, if not a scarf. And yes, if you’re a year-rounder who’s endured a full summer, it will have you celebrating, too.

As for when they arrive, it varies from year to year. Some years we get what I call an abnormally early teaser front (i.e. 2000) in early October, but most years (as shown by the distribution curve above) our first real dose of cold air doesn’t arrive until a week or two on either side of Halloween. Then there’s the year’s we have to wallow all the way to the end of November to get our official dose (i.e. 2013, 2020).

Thus my prediction: I’m going to be conservative and say by Thanksgiving it will have arrived (unless it’s another 1986 – see chart above).

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