La Niña Winter

What’s in store for the winter?

The swing and strengthening of the ENSO signal to the La Niña side of the spectrum has forecasters calling for a “warmer and dryer” than normal winter throughout the southeast.

ENSO is a particularly strong predictor of winter rainfall in south Florida. What’s unpredictable is how high or long the signal will stay in either direction, or what lag effects may be in play.

Other parts of the country it will be colder and wetter as a result. This article and the map below paint the broader picture.

The past two dry seasons in south Florida have been notable in their extremes:

  • Nov08 to Apr09 was especially dry (a La Niña) and
  • Nov09 to April10 was especially wet (an El Niño).

Here’s two photos from the same spot along Tamiami Trail
that showcase the difference:

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