Multi-gear cycle

How can we be at a record low …

But still be pretty high?

Blame it on an early end to the wet season (i.e., a stormless October) and a rainless early start to the dry season (November – mid May).

The result is that the swamp is at a two-decadelow for mid November.

Keep in mind that swamp stage is still high relative to what we’ll see later in the winter and spring.

That’s assuming we don’t have a “wet” dry season – as I’ve read we might in the newspapers. The same El Nino that quieted the Atlantic hurricane season with high-altitude sheer winds may send us a “colder and wetter” winter here in south Florida.

Or so the theory goes:

The last-gasp reemergence of the tropics with Ida gives me pause for thought.

Did something change?

Our last really big El Nino-soaked dry season was epic El Nino of 1998, and before that, 1994-1995, which importantly was the back end of a relatively weak (but multi-year) El Nino:

Such a prolonged condition is favorable to wet Florida winters.

Those years “freeze-framed” the swamps in a full saturation mode through most of the winter.

My best guess for this year is “slow motion” slide down into traditional dry season territory, as shown below.

Blues show surface water (the darker the deeper), the sand color is where it is dry.
What’s wet and dry (and how deep) is a function of the seasons and other cycles.

The water cycle is just “one wheel,” but it has many gears!

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