Neutral phase

Here’s a temperature and rainfall update recorded at Naples Airport since the start of October,
Through the first 60 days of the dry season.

November was a cold one,
But our week ahead will be dominated by warmer and more humid air flowing up from the Tropics.

It just goes to show, there are no such things as absolutes in the weather.

Patterns come and go:
Some in short term and others in the long.

Case in point is the El Nino/ La Nina teeter totter.

It is a well known player in Florida’s atmospheric stew.

An El Nino winter tends to bring a wetter-than-normal dry season.

Conversely, a La Nina tends to lead to a drier-than-normal dry season.

But what about the Neutral Phase like we are in now?

There’s no correlation with rainfall, but there is an interesting wrinkle concerning cold fronts.

El Nino winters tend to be colder than La Nina or Neutral Phase winters,

But we are more likely to get deep freezes during the Neutral phase, even if the winter isn’t as consistently as cool.

Why is that?

During the Neutral Phase, the Jet Stream is free to meander up and down across the continent.

That won’t bring Florida steady coolness, but it does set the stage for periodic deep incursions of frigid air shooting down from the Canadian Shield by way of a polar express or yankee clipper.

Any orange farmer will tell you, all it takes is a couple hours a notch or two below freezing to severely damage the citrus crop.

But that’s all prognosticating.

To date we haven’t had a night time low drop below the 40º F mark.

Last year’s low was 34º F on January 3rd. It dropped down to 16º F in Atlanta, 25º F in Tallahassee, 39º F in Miami, and 45º F in Key West on the same day.

As usual, it’s a wait and see for what this January has in store.
Cross stitch of Collier County Florida by H.M Bela Reussille was photographed at the Collier County Museum. You can check out more MyWorld images from around the world at the MyWorld site.

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