Start of rainy season?
It's like a flip of the switch

Typically it isn’t until Memorial Day …

That the summer wet season rains reliably start.

A look at the historical daily rainfall record

That doesn’t mean we may not get some teaser rain here and there, and who knows, maybe even a good few consecutive days of rain in April. But usually those rains have less effect on raising the water table than they do turning the popcorn-dry swamp soggy for a few days, and which quickly dries up.

More about the chart above: It shows the median daily rainfall for Big Cypress National Preserve from March through early July. Median is different than average in that it is the “middle value” of a data set, the value of which half the values are larger and half are smaller. The advantage of the median is that it is not skewed by one big rain event. For example, 1.5 and 1.2 inches of rain fell, respectively, on April 15th of 2000 and 2002. The average rainfall for April 15 over the 24-years of data I’m using is 0.16 inches of rain, whereas the median rainfall is 0.

Back to the original question, baring a large frontal storm or some other changing curveball, my best guess is the start of the rainy season is 5-7 weeks away — on or abouts Memorial Day.

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