No, water does not flow up hill.
But trying to keep up with it often feels like an uphill battle.
My solution: No one graph, table or map usually tells the full story. You need a combination. And even then you usually have to be looking out the window, too. But looking out your window can be deceiving, too.
That’s where aggregating data by watersheds or basins comes in handy.
The following forecast is provided by the meteorologists at South Florida Water Management District. It’s a bit technical, but always worth the read. Thank you SFWMD for providing such interesting info!
This June didn’t register on the epic scale …
Of over 20 inches falling, (i.e. 2005 or 2017).
But after a slow start,
It eked it’s way into the long-term normal range …
Making it the rainiest month since September of 2020.
The swamp still has a lot of filling up to do …
But over 8 inches for June is a solid start.
That being said, some domes are still completely dry.
The good news is …
We finally figured out the problem.
The only catch is …
It could take a week or two for the part to come in. In a nutshell, there’s a high pressure system forming over the southeast United States. That will pump dry air into Florida into next week.
After that, around Memorial Day, expect the rain machine to start cranking up.
There’s no secret to …
What it takes to crank up Florida’s rain machine?
All good rain mechanics know you have to get nighttime lows to stay above the 70° F line.
That’s when the good humidity really kicks in.
Looks like we’ll be crossing that line this week.
Go rain machine go!
The numbers are (almost) in for Water Year 2021:
The Big Cypress received 43 inches of wet season rain and 14 inches of dry season rain, or a 75/25 percent split between the two seasons, for a grand water year total of 57 inches of rain.
Despite the more bountiful summer rains, it was the dry season rains (and specifically November, and even more specifically one storm – Eta) that put the Big Cypress in the “above normal” range for Water Year 2021.
As you can see in the chart below, even the “above average” dry season had a significant rainless spell from January through March (i.e. the red slashes). And who’s to say we’re out of the dry season yet:
A dry May could yet drop the swamp to deep drought
The dry season isn’t over …
But it’s entering its final weeks.
When does the rainy season start?
Afternoon showers can start sputtering in April and early May, but it isn’t until later in May and early June that the water table typically rebounds.
Whatever the case, the verdict is in:
The 6-month dry season was was wetter than average across the entire southern peninsula with the exception of the Upper Kissimmee and with the lower east coast leading the way. District-wide, south Florida averages around 13 inches of rain compared to the 15 inches recorded this year.
But May is a pivotal rain month.
Typically drought extends and deepens in its early half before the afternoon showers kick in or we get a big regional storm.
As usual, it’s a wait and see.
What if all the raindrops were spread evenly …
Across the entire state?
Animated rain comparison between all of Florida and just south Florida
Actually, it sort of is:
Every part of Florida averages plus or minus 50 inches of rain.
But there are regional differences, too.
South Florida gets the least amount of winter rain whereas the panhandle gets the biggest dose of springtime fronts. That gives the Suwannee District a bump of rain at the same time when south Florida is descending into its deepest drought. As for the driest time in all of Florida: The month is May. And the wettest? September is Florida’s typical highwater month.
Take home point:
As useful as a statewide average is, we highly recommend more than one rain gage.
