It was our third of the water year (i.e. since January 2021) …
And second of the wet season.
What is a Big Rain Day (BRD)?
It’s any day when south Florida averages an inch or more of rain across the entire peninsula.
On average, south Florida gets about 5 BRDs per year. Flood years we typically get more (i.e. 10 in 2005, the year of Wilma) and drought years get less (i.e. 2 in the 2011, the year of the Jarhead Wildfire).
What months do BRDs strike most?
Almost 20 percent of them occur in June. But the take-home lesson from the table below is that practically every month has at least a 1 in 30 chance of getting a BRD. And that’s all it takes. A single day of rain can change the outlook for the whole month, or longer.
Tuesday’s BRD wasn’t gargantuan …
But it did set the stage for the high-water heart of the wet season ahead.
Water typically peaks in September and October in the swamp.
That’s just a sign that the pattern of afternoon summer showers is starting to rev back up. Typically, the storms start their journey in the middle of the swamp and then drift slowly to the west. That’s why if you live in Naples you’ll often see them following you on your way home, and then eventually later that night it may rain.
Look for the clouds to become more frequent in May and June. Typically the two months combine to give us 13 inches of rain.